Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
